Google Plus will have more than 400million users by the end of 2012.The prediction comes from U.S. analyst Paul Allen, who said that Google Plus, which went public in September, has just passed the 62million mark, with a quarter of those signing up in December.
He said 625,000 members are signing up every day and expects that number to rapidly increase – partly because over 700,000 Android devices are bought every day, which makes signing up to Google Plus easier, and partly through integration with other products and the power of word of mouth.
It’s still far short of Facebook’s 800million users, but these figures are sure to make CEO Mark Zuckerberg sit up and take notice.
It should be pointed out; however, that Mr. Allen’s methodology is not based on actual figures and could best be described as a ‘guestimate’.
This is how Google Plus has grown according to Paul Allen:
July 13 – 10million
August 1 – 20.5million
September 1 – 24.7million
October 1 – 38million (Larry Page announced ‘more than 40m users’ on Oct 13)
November 1 – 43million
December 1 – 50million
December 27 – 62million
January 1 – 65.8million (forecast)
February 1 – 85.2million (forecast)
There is no doubt that Google plus will be a major force to reckon with in the social media business. However, for me, the question is whether users of Google Plus are and would be active as Facebook users. Most colleagues have sign up for Google plus because they use Gmail and other android products; these guys are always updating their Facebook status, but hardly post on Google plus.
Google would therefore have to convince the players in the social networking club as to why they should prefer Google plus to Facebook or Twitter.
Meanwhile, according to a report by Enders Analysis, Facebook is “winning the battle for eyeballs and advertising in the internet display arena,” . While Google is still “the king of internet advertising” with greater global reach than the social network, Facebook’s more dynamic growth, and rising rates of engagement and usage, suggest it will continue to dominate the display ad market going forward.